Direi che la news merita un topic a parte.The Hollywood Reporter’s Matthew Belloni reported on 5/16 that NBC Universal had
reached a deal to retain Raw when the current contract expires in October of
2019.
Belloni claimed that WWE was asking for triple its current $160 million price
tag for Raw and Smackdown and they were agreeing to the price for Raw, but would
let Smackdown go.
If that is accurate, that would mean a number in the range of a $240 million
price tag for Raw alone. That would be far beyond what most analysts were
expecting, which was $240 million to $300 million combined for the U.S. rights
to both Raw and Smackdown. If Raw is really getting a number at that level, it
would mean the combined number for both shows would end up closer to $400
million, a figure USA Network wasn’t interested in spending.
Retaining Raw at a price tag even near that level would almost surely mean Raw
would remain three hours.
FOX was interested in both Raw & Smackdown. Whether they’d bid big to get what
is the No.2 show on a Tuesday on FS 1 would be a question. We do know that FOX
made internal moves in recent weeks that those within the company believed had
to be with getting ready for Raw on the FOX network, which likely helped raise
the price tag across the board for the product and definitely for Raw,
considered in television as the main show, particularly as the home of Ronda
Rousey right now.
Smackdown would be a reliable ratings draw for any cable station, but it would
be very questionable for the FOX Network itself. It’s one thing to have the best
of the product, it’s another to spend big to get what is considered the
secondary show. Smackdown would be a great boost to the overall profile of FS
1,but the Smackdown audience would decline moving to a less powerful network and
also one that would be in 6.7 million (a drop of 7.4 percent) fewer homes.
But this is very much like the UFC deal. The increased revenue more than makes
up for lesser penetration and a decline in popularity or fear of it is no longer
a major issue.
ESPN+ valuing a UFC live event at $10 million means suddenly the value of a Raw
episode, which will draw multiple times the viewership, could easily be valued
at $4.6 million as opposed to the current valuation of $1.54 million.
It also means Raw is far more valuable than PPVs on the WWE Network, as if the
WWE Network has a slightly above $2 per subscriber profit margin and 1.2 million
U.S. subscribers, that means the value of every PPV over the course of the year
is probably along the line of $30 million in U.S. profits and $2.5 million per
PPV show. If Raw expenses are kept at around $60 million per year, the most
recent number we had for them, and revenues are $240 million, that’s $180
million for the year in profits or $3.46 million per episode of Raw.
It probably won’t change the dynamics as using PPV to promote Raw makes no sense
since PPV reaches a smaller audience. But it does serve no purpose to save the
biggest events for PPV, except to keep the WrestleMania brand strong and perhaps
shows like Royal Rumble and SummerSlam due to tradition. But anything else is no
longer based no economics, but an inability to change the old school thinking of
how you promote and the old values that are out of date.
Based on value, it would now make far more sense to have the biggest events on
the most lucrative venue, Raw, not so much because the money is guaranteed
although that is part of it, but because it is more money and is also the show
that reaches the most viewers.
This continues the trend where the numbers are so high, that things like
reaching the largest number of viewers, creating new stars, creating interesting
matchups and storylines all really become a tiny factor in business, and
business is all about producing as much overall product as possible and selling
it to outlets looking for content, whether they be television or digital.
It also means the long-term value for both the WWE and UFC franchises, as well
as sports leagues that produce what is considered appointment viewing, as in
live sports or sports related, will continue to skyrocket whether those leagues
drop in popularity with the public or not.
EDIT
Tanto per la cronaca, il titolo in borsa in questo momento è al massimo storico, superando i 50 dollari ad azione.